Essential Info
Overview
East Asian countries were notably uninterested in regional monetary integration until the late 1990s, when the Asian financial crisis revealed the fragility of the region's exchange rate arrangements and highlighted the need for a stronger regional financial architecture. Since then, the countries of East Asia have begun taking steps to explore monetary and financial cooperation, establishing such initiatives as regular consultations among finance ministers and central bank governors and the pooling of foreign exchange reserves. In this book Ulrich Volz investigates the prospects for monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia, using state-of-the-art theoretical and empirical tools to analyze the most promising policy options.
Volz points out that monetary cooperation can be defined broadly to include options ranging from informal policy consultations to European-style monetary union. He recommends a gradual approach toward monetary integration in East Asia, one that pursues less extensive forms of monetary cooperation before tackling such highly challenging projects as a regional exchange rate system or a regional monetary union. The simpler, less demanding forms of policy coordination would, Volz argues, allow East Asian countries to develop an integrationist spirit and gain experience in cooperation. Monetary integration is not an end in itself, Volz reminds us, but a means to promote economic and financial development and create a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to investment and growth.
After providing an in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of monetary integration, Volz examines different options for East Asian countries. He then proposes a strategy whereby countries first opt for a managed float of exchange rates guided by a regional currency basket into which an "Asian currency unit" is introduced as a virtual parallel currency to circulate alongside national currencies.
About the Author
Ulrich Volz is Senior Economist at the German Development Institute.
Table of Contents
- Prospects for Monetary Cooperation and Integration in East Asia
- Prospects for Monetary Cooperation and Integration in East Asia
- Ulrich Volz
- The MIT Press
- Cambridge, Massachusetts
- London, England
- © 2010
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher.
- For information about special quantity discounts, please email special_sales@mitpress.mit.edu
- This book was set in Times New Roman by Toppan Best-set Premedia Limited. Printed and bound in the United States of America.
- Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
- Volz, Ulrich, 1977-
- Prospects for monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia / Ulrich Volz.
- p. cm.
- Includes bibliographical references and index.
- ISBN 978-0-262-01399-4 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Monetary integration—East Asia. 2. East Asia— Economic integration. I. Title.
- HG1270.5.V65 2010
- 332.4′566095—dc22
- 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
- Contents
- List of Abbreviations vii
- Acknowledgments xi
- Foreword by Koichi Hamada xv
- 1 Introduction 1
- I The Forces behind Monetary Cooperation and Integration 7
- 2 The Instability of the International Monetary System and the Regionalization of Money 9
- 3 The Asian Financial Crisis 21
- 4 The Rise of China 41
- II Costs and Benefits of Monetary Integration 47
- 5 The Standard Approach: The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas 49
- 6 A Reconsideration of Costs and Benefits 103
- III Strategies for Monetary Integration in East Asia 141
- 7 Current Monetary Arrangements in East Asia 143
- 8 Exchange Rate Options for East Asia 157
- 9 Inflation Targeting across the Region 161
- 10 A Regional Exchange Rate System for East Asia? Lessons of the European Monetary System 167
- 11 Basket Strategies for East Asia 187
- 12 Reflections on Monetary Integration in East Asia: Past, Present, and Future 203
- Notes 217
- References 241
- Annexes 267
- Index 313
- 1.2
- 1.4
- BooksChicago
- Books Chicago
- MITBooks
- List of Abbreviations
- List of Abbreviations
- List of Abbreviations
- ABF Asian Bond Fund
- ABMI ASEAN+3 Asian Bond Market Initiative
- ACU Asian currency unit
- ADB Asian Development Bank
- AEC ASEAN Economic Community
- AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area
- AMF Asian Monetary Fund
- ANCOM Andean Common Market
- APEC Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum
- ASA ASEAN Swap Arrangement
- ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
- ASEAN+3 ASEAN with China, Japan, and Korea
- ASEAN+4 ASEAN+3 with Hong Kong
- BIS Bank for International Settlements
- BSAs Bilateral Swap Arrangements
- c.i.f. Cost, insurance, and freight
- CACM Central American Common Market
- CeMCoA Center for Monetary Cooperation in Asia of the Bank of Japan
- CIA Central Intelligence Agency
- CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
- CMI Chiang Mai Initiative
- CNY Chinese yuan
- CPI Consumer price inflation
- DEY Currency basket consisting of the US dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen
- DTS Direction of Trade Statistics (IMF)
- EAFTA East Asian Free Trade Area
- EC European Community
- ECB European Central Bank
- ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
- ECU European currency unit
- EEC European Economic Community
- EMEAP Executives’ Meeting of East-Asia and Pacific Central Banks
- EMS European Monetary System
- EMU European Economic and Monetary Union
- ERM Exchange rate mechanism
- EU European Union
- EUR Euro
- ERPD ASEAN+3 Economic Review and Policy Dialogue
- FDI Foreign direct investment
- FTA Free trade agreement
- G-3 Group of three (United States, Japan, and euro area)
- G-5 Group of five (France, [West] Germany, Japan, United States, United Kingdom)
- G-7 Group of seven (G-5 plus Canada and Italy)
- G-10 Group of ten (G-7 plus Belgium, Netherlands, and Sweden)
- G-20 Group of twenty (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States)
- GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
- GDP Gross domestic product
- GNI Gross national income
- HK Hong Kong
- HKD Hong Kong dollar
- ICB Individual country basket
- IDR Indonesian rupiah
- IFS International Financial Statistics (published by the IMF)
- ILO International Labor Organization
- IMF International Monetary Fund
- IOU “I owe you”
- IP Industrial production
- JPY Japanese yen
- KRW Korean won
- Mercosur Mercado Común del Sur
- MYR Malaysian ringgit
- NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement
- NCB National central bank
- NEER Nominal effective exchange rate
- OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
- OCA Optimum currency area
- OLS Ordinary least squares
- PBC People’s Bank of China
- PHP Philippine peso
- PPP Purchasing power parity
- REER Real effective exchange rate
- SADC Southern African Development Community
- SD Standard deviation
- SEACEN South East Asian Central Banks
- SGD Singapore dollar
- SGP Stability and Growth Pact
- SITC Standard international trade classification
- THB Thai baht
- UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
- UK United Kingdom
- UN United Nations
- USD United States dollar
- US United States of America
- USG US growth
- VAR Vector autoregression
- WAMU West African Monetary Union
- WAMZ West African Monetary Zone
- WDI World Development Indicators (published by the World Bank)
- WEO World Economic Outlook database (published by the IMF)
- WTO World Trade Organization
Endorsements
"This is one of most comprehensive studies available on monetary cooperation and integration in East Asia, and it can also be used as a very good handbook on the issue. Volz's opinions are balanced, and his book provides a clear road map for the reform of exchange rate arrangements in East Asia."
Yu Yongding, president of the China Society of World Economics, former director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics
"This is a very rich analysis of the prospects for monetary unification in East Asia. Ulrich Volz manages to blend economic theory, econometrics, and history to analyze the many dimensions of the process toward monetary integration in the most dynamic region of the world. Economists interested in the many issues relating to monetary unions will find a wealth of information in this book."
Paul De Grauwe, University of Leuven