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September 2005
8 x 9, 497 pp., 12 illus.
$30.00/£22.95 (PAPER)
Short

ISBN-10:
0-262-58259-7
ISBN-13:
978-0-262-58259-9

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Cloth (2003)
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Reasoning about Uncertainty
Joseph Y. Halpern

Table of Contents

Uncertainty is a fundamental and unavoidable feature of daily life; in order to deal with uncertaintly intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty; the material is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

Halpern begins by surveying possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures. He considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; this leads to a discussion of qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. He considers not only the uncertainty of a single agent but also uncertainty in a multi-agent framework. Halpern then considers the formal logical systems for reasoning about uncertainty. He discusses knowledge and belief; default reasoning and the semantics of default; reasoning about counterfactuals, and combining probability and counterfactuals; belief revision; first-order modal logic; and statistics and beliefs. He includes a series of exercises at the end of each chapter.

About the Author

Joseph Y. Halpern is Professor of Computer Science at Cornell University.


Endorsements

"Halpern presents a masterful, complete and unified account of the many ways in which the connections between logic, probability theory and commonsensical linguistic terms can be formalized. Terms such as 'true,' 'certain,' 'plausible,' 'possible,' 'believed,' 'known,' 'default,' 'relevant,' 'independent,' and 'preferred' are given rigorous semantical and syntactical analyses, and their interrelationships explicated and exemplified. An authoritative panoramic reference for philosophers, cognitive scientists and artificial intelligence researchers."
—Judea Pearl, Computer Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles

"For more than a decade, the study of uncertain reasoning has been graced by the breadth, openness, and agility of Joe Halpern's intellect. More than any of his colleagues, Joe has sought to reconcile and unify the diverse insights and methods for reasoning about knowledge and uncertainty that have been developed and championed in various academic fields. This cheerful, measured, and comprehensive book will bring Joe's tone, as well as his individual contributions, to the forefront of the field. I cannot imagine a better starting place for a student of the subject."
—Glenn Shafer, Department of Accounting and Information Systems, Rutgers University School of Business

"Uncertainty is a central topic in many domains, such as economics, logic, artificial intelligence, and statistics. It takes an omniscientist such as Joe Halpern to treat this topic in full. His book is a rich source of unique insights, offering unexpected connections between different fields."
—Peter P. Wakker, Department of Economics, University of Amsterdam

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