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Sustainability or Collapse?
An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth
Edited by Robert Costanza, Lisa J. Graumlich and Will Steffen
With contributions by Roelof M. J. Boumans, Robert Costanza, Carole L. Crumley, Paul J. Crutzen, John A. Dearing, Bert J.M. de Vries, John Finnigan, Timothy F. Flannery, Jonathan Friedman, Erica Gaddis, Helmut Geist, Lisa J. Graumlich, Richard H. Grove, Arnulf Grübler, Helmut Haberl, Fekri A. Hassan, Kathy A. Hibbard, Frank Hole, Eric F. Lambin, Rik Leemans, Diana M. Liverman, Nathan J. Mantua, Dennis L. Meadows, John R. McNeill, Bruno Messerli, João Morais, Christian Pfister, Charles L. Redman, James F. Reynolds, Frank Riedel, Vernon L. Scarborough, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, D. Mark Stafford Smith, Will Steffen, Uno Svedin, Joseph A. Tainter, Peter Turchin, Sander E. van der Leeuw, Yoshinori Yasuda, Marianne N. Young and Michael D. Young
| Dahlem Workshops | ix |
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| List of Participants
 Sample Chapter - Download PDF (58 KB) | xiii |
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| Foreword
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Sample Chapter - Download PDF (192 KB) | xvii |
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| Section I: Introduction | |
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| 1. | Sustainability or Collapse
Lessons from Integrating the History of Humans and the Rest of Nature
Robert Costanza, Lisa J. Graumlich and Will Steffen | 3 |
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| 2. | Human–Environment Interactions
Learning from the Past
John A. Dearing | 19 |
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| 3. | Assessing and Communicating Data Quality
Toward a System of Data Quality Grading
Robert Costanza | 39 |
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| Section II: The Millennial Timescale: Up to 10,000 Years Ago | |
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| 4. | The Rise and Fall of the Ancient Maya
A Case Study in Political Ecology
Vernon L. Scarborough | 51 |
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| 5. | Climate, Complexity, and Problem Solving in the Roman Empire
Joseph A. Tainter and Carole L. Crumley | 61 |
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| 6. | Integration of Climatic, Archaeological, and Historical Data
A Case Study of the Khabur River Basin, Northeastern Syria
Frank Hole | 77 |
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| 7. | The Trajectory of Human Evolution in Australia:
Timothy F. Flannery | 89 |
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| 8. | Toward a Comparative Study of Hegemonic Deline in Global Systems
The Complexity of Crisis and the Paradoxes of Differentiated Experience
Jonathan Friedman | 95 |
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| 9. | Group Report
Millennial Perspectives on the Dynamic Interaction of Climate, People, and Resources
Fekri A. Hassan, Frank Hole, João Morais, Frank Riedel, Vernon L. Scarborough, Joseph A. Tainter, Peter Turchin and Yoshinori Yasuda | 115 |
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| Section III: The Centennial Timescale: Up to 1000 Years Ago | |
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| 10. | Revolutionary Weather
The Climatic and Economic Crisis of 1788–1795 and the Discovery of El Niño
Richard H. Grove | 151 |
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| 11. | The Lie of History
Nation-States and the Contradictions of Complex Societies
Fekri A. Hassan | 169 |
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| 12. | Little Ice Age-type Impacts and the Mitigation of Social Vulnerability to Climate in the Swiss Canton of Bern prior to 1800
Christian Pfister | 197 |
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| 13. | Information Processing and Its Role in the Rise of the European World System
Sander E. van der Leeuw | 213 |
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| 14. | Group Report
Integrating Socioenvironmental Interactions over Centennial Timescales — Needs and Issues
John A. Dearing, Lisa J. Graumlich, Richard H. Grove, Arnulf Grübler, Helmut Haberl, Frank Hole, Christian Pfister and Sander E. van der Leeuw | 243 |
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| Section IV: The Decadal Timescale: Up to 100 Years Ago | |
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| 15. | A Decadal Chronology of 20th-Century Changes in Earth's Natural Systems
Nathan J. Mantua | 277 |
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| 16. | Social, Economic, and Political Forces in Environmental Change
Decadal Scale (1900 to 2000)
John R. McNeill | 301 |
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| 17. | Integrated Human–Environment Approaches of Land Degradation in Drylands | 331 |
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| 18. | Group Report
Decadal-scale Interactions of Humans and the Environment
Kathy A. Hibbard, Paul J. Crutzen, Eric F. Lambin, Diana M. Liverman, Nathan J. Mantua, John R. McNeill, Bruno Messerli and Will Steffen | 341 |
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| Section V: The Future | |
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| 19. | Scenarios: Guidance for an Uncertain and Complex World?
Bert J.M. de Vries | 379 |
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| 20. | Evaluating Past Forecasts
Reflections on One Critique of The Limits to Growth
Dennis L. Meadows | 399 |
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| 21. | Integrated Global Models
Robert Costanza, Rik Leemans, Roelof M. J. Boumans and Erica Gaddis | 417 |
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| 22. | Group Report
Future Scenarios of Human–Environment Systems
Marianne N. Young, Rik Leemans, Roelof M. J. Boumans, Robert Costanza, Bert J.M. de Vries, John Finnigan, Uno Svedin and Michael D. Young | 447 |
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| List of Acronyms | 471 |
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| Author Index
Sample Chapter - Download PDF (20 KB) | 475 |
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| Name Index
Sample Chapter - Download PDF (53 KB) | 477 |
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| Subject Index
Sample Chapter - Download PDF (66 KB) | 485 |
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