Could we build a computer like HAL today? For any given technolgy what factors determine how powerful a computer we can produce? What might be the general design -- the computer architecture -- of a HAL suited to tasks as diverse as controlling a spaceship and discussing personal psychology with the crew? What types of hardware components would we use? How would the hardware support the complex software required to carry out the many humanlike functions of which HAL is capable?

With the 20/20 vision of hindsight, we can examine the specific predictions of both the book and the film versions of 2001 and observe now that some of them were far too optimistic and others were not nearly optimistic enough. In fact, over the past fifty years, progress in computer engineering and computer science has been breathtaking in some aspects and disappointing in others. While some computer systems have become workhorses and milestone systems against which all successor systems are judged, others have shown great promise but delivered too little to attract a wide following.

So how does one make a rational prediction about comptuer and microelectronics techology? Two basic hardware characteristics, which vary over time, allow us to predict future system size and capability .....