General Equilibrium Trade Policy Modeling
This collection of original essays makes a substantial contribution to the empirical analysis of trade policy and to the current debate on a new international economic order. They address policy from a strictly economic viewpoint, using computable general equilibrium models as analytical tools and assessing the strengths and weaknesses of these models, which are being increasingly used for policy analysis in international trade and other branches of economics. The essays all examine the effects of 50 percent tariff cuts on the various economies modeled. However, since some models are global (multicountry) and others are single country, such cuts can take several forms: unilateral, multilateral, or bilateral. The models show wide variation in their results. This points up the need for caution in using such models for rigid policy advice and for further improvement in data and techniques if trade modeling is to become effective. Nonetheless, the strength of such models in making explicit the implicit assumptions of policymakers and in providing a quantitative framework for trade policy evaluation is clearly revealed.