State-Space Models with Regime Switching
Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications
312 pp., 6 x 9 in,
- Published: November 3, 2017
- Published: May 13, 1999
Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.
The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
This work is refreshingly original and technically masterful, and it will appeal to both professionals and students.
Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania