Olivier Blanchard

Olivier Blanchard is C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. He was Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2008 to 2015.

  • Evolution or Revolution?

    Evolution or Revolution?

    Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy after the Great Recession

    Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers

    Leading economists discuss post–financial crisis policy dilemmas, including the dangers of complacency in a period of relative stability.

    The Great Depression led to the Keynesian revolution and dramatic shifts in macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic policy. Similarly, the stagflation of the 1970s led to the adoption of the natural rate hypothesis and to a major reassessment of the role of macroeconomic policy. Should the financial crisis and the Great Recession lead to yet another major reassessment, to another intellectual revolution?  Will it?  If so, what form should it, or will it, take? These are the questions taken up in this book, in a series of contributions by policymakers and academics. 

    The contributors discuss the complex role of the financial sector, the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policy, the limits of monetary policy to address financial stability, the need for fiscal policy to play a more active role in stabilization, and the relative roles of financial regulation and macroprudential tools. The general message is a warning against going back to precrisis ways—to narrow inflation targeting, little use of fiscal policy for stabilization, and insufficient financial regulation.

    Contributors David Aikman, Alan J. Auerbach, Ben S. Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Lael Brainard, Markus K. Brunnermeier, Marco Buti, Benoît Cœuré, Mario Draghi, Barry Eichengreen, Jason Furman, Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrew G. Haldane, Philipp Hildebrand, Marc Hinterschweiger, Sujit Kapadia, Nellie Liang, Adam S. Posen, Raghuram Rajan, Valerie Ramey, Carmen Reinhart, Dani Rodrik, Robert E. Rubin, Jay C. Shambaugh, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Jeremy C. Stein, Lawrence H. Summers

    • Hardcover $39.95 £32.00
  • Progress and Confusion

    Progress and Confusion

    The State of Macroeconomic Policy

    Olivier Blanchard, Raghuram Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff, and Lawrence H. Summers

    Leading economists consider the shape of future economic policy: will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or contend with the post-crisis “new normal”?

    What will economic policy look like once the global financial crisis is finally over? Will it resume the pre-crisis consensus, or will it be forced to contend with a post-crisis “new normal”? Have we made progress in addressing these issues, or does confusion remain? In April of 2015, the International Monetary Fund gathered leading economists, both academics and policymakers, to address the shape of future macroeconomic policy. This book is the result, with prominent figures—including Ben Bernanke, John Taylor, and Paul Volcker—offering essays that address topics that range from the measurement of systemic risk to foreign exchange intervention.

    The chapters address whether we have entered a “new normal” of low growth, negative real rates, and deflationary pressures, with contributors taking opposing views; whether new financial regulation has stemmed systemic risk; the effectiveness of macro prudential tools; monetary policy, the choice of inflation targets, and the responsibilities of central banks; fiscal policy, stimulus, and debt stabilization; the volatility of capital flows; and the international monetary and financial system, including the role of international policy coordination.

    In light of these discussions, is there progress or confusion regarding the future of macroeconomic policy? In the final chapter, volume editor Olivier Blanchard answers: both. Many lessons have been learned; but, as the chapters of the book reveal, there is no clear agreement on several key issues.

    Contributors Viral V. Acharya, Anat R. Admati, Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Marco Buti, Ricardo J. Caballero, Agustín Carstens, Jaime Caruana, J. Bradford DeLong, Martin Feldstein, Vitor Gaspar, John Geanakoplos, Philipp Hildebrand, Gill Marcus, Maurice Obstfeld, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, Rafael Portillo, Raghuram Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff, Robert E. Rubin, Lawrence H. Summers, Hyun Song Shin, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Paul Tucker, José Viñals, Paul A. Volcker

    • Hardcover $31.95 £26.00
    • Paperback $21.95 £17.99
  • What Have We Learned?

    What Have We Learned?

    Macroeconomic Policy after the Crisis

    George A. Akerlof, Olivier Blanchard, David Romer, and Joseph E. Stiglitz

    Top economists consider how to conduct policy in a world where previous beliefs have been shattered by the recent financial and economic crises.

    Since 2008, economic policymakers and researchers have occupied a brave new economic world. Previous consensuses have been upended, former assumptions have been cast into doubt, and new approaches have yet to stand the test of time. Policymakers have been forced to improvise and researchers to rethink basic theory. George Akerlof, Nobel Laureate and one of this volume's editors, compares the crisis to a cat stuck in a tree, afraid to move. In April 2013, the International Monetary Fund brought together leading economists and economic policymakers to discuss the slowly emerging contours of the macroeconomic future. This book offers their combined insights.

    The editors and contributors—who include the Nobel Laureate and bestselling author Joseph Stiglitz, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen, and the former Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer—consider the lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. They discuss, among other things, post-crisis questions about the traditional policy focus on inflation; macroprudential tools (which focus on the stability of the entire financial system rather than of individual firms) and their effectiveness; fiscal stimulus, public debt, and fiscal consolidation; and exchange rate arrangements.

    • Hardcover $31.95 £26.00
    • Paperback $19.95 £15.99
  • In the Wake of the Crisis

    In the Wake of the Crisis

    Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy

    Olivier Blanchard, David Romer, Michael Spence, and Joseph E. Stiglitz

    Prominent economists reconsider the fundamentals of economic policy for a post-crisis world.

    In 2011, the International Monetary Fund invited prominent economists and economic policymakers to consider the brave new world of the post-crisis global economy. The result is a book that captures the state of macroeconomic thinking at a transformational moment.

    The crisis and the weak recovery that has followed raise fundamental questions concerning macroeconomics and economic policy. These top economists discuss future directions for monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial regulation, capital-account management, growth strategies, the international monetary system, and the economic models that should underpin thinking about critical policy choices.

    Contributors Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero, Charles Collyns, Arminio Fraga, Már Guðmundsson, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Otmar Issing, Olivier Jeanne, Rakesh Mohan, Maurice Obstfeld, José Antonio Ocampo, Guillermo Ortiz, Y. V. Reddy, Dani Rodrik, David Romer, Paul Romer, Andrew Sheng, Hyun Song Shin, Parthasarathi Shome, Robert Solow, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, Adair Turner

    • Hardcover $25.00 £20.00
    • Paperback $14.95 £11.99
  • NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993

    NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993

    Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer

    This is the eighth in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics.

    Contents U.S. Commercial Banking: Trends, Cycles, and Policy, John Boyd and Mark Gertler • The Effects of Government Purchases: Theory and Evidence, Anton Braun and Ellen McGrattan • Macroeconomic Growth with Microeconomic Empirics, Ricardo Caballero and Adam Jaffe • The Chinese and East European Routes to Reform, Alan Gelb, Gary Jefferson, and Inderjit Singh • Waiting and the Option to Invest: Theory and Evidence, Robert Pindyck and Andres Solimano • Unemployment in Europe, Gilles Saint Paul

    • Hardcover $40.00
    • Paperback $7.75 £5.99
  • Post-Communist Reform

    Post-Communist Reform

    Pain and Progress

    Olivier Blanchard, Maxim Boycko, Marek Dabrowski, Rudiger Dornbusch, Richard Layard, and Andrei Shleifer

    In this new report, they take stock, returning to the original themes and assessing progress and prospects, particularly in Russia.

    In their earlier report, Reform in Eastern Europe, the WIDER group assessed the main building blocks of a successful transition in Eastern Europe: stabilization, price liberalization, privatization, and restructuring. For the last three years this group of leading economists has been heavily involved in the reform process. In this new report, they take stock, returning to the original themes and assessing progress and prospects, particularly in Russia.Stabilization in the major Central European countries was done very much by the book. Russia, in contrast, is following a path of restructuring without stabilization. The authors discuss how far this alternative strategy is likely to get. Turning to privatization, they note that initial plans started from the assumption that the state owned the assets. As slow progress of those plans has painfully shown, this was the wrong assumption. They point out that assets have in fact many de facto claimants, from managers to workers to local authorities to ministries, and discuss how the current Russian privatization program starts and builds up from this more realistic assessment.

    In the face of a collapse of trade in Eastern Europe, triggered by reform in Central Europe and a similar collapse between republics following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the authors show how simple measures such as a payments union can be used to increase trade and output. Post-Communist Reform concludes with a look at restructuring in Poland. The authors focus on the behavior of the state, the growth of the private sector, the role of financial systems, and the coherence of overall government policy, ending on a note of cautious optimism.

    • Hardcover $32.00 £26.00
    • Paperback $20.00 £15.99
  • NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992

    NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992

    Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer

    This is the seventh in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics.

    Contents What Shall We Do Today? Goals and Signposts in the Operation of Monetary Policy, Ben S. Bernanke and Frederic S. Mishkin • A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore, Alwyn Young • International Trade and the Wage Structure, Steven J. Davis • Imperfect Information and Macroeconomic Analysis, Joseph E. Stiglitz and Bruce Greenwald • Asset Pricing Lessons for Macroeconomics, Lars P. Hansen and John H. Cochrane • Postmortem on the Debt Crisis, Daniel Cohen

    • Hardcover $35.00
    • Paperback $7.75 £5.99
  • East-West Migration

    East-West Migration

    The Alternatives

    Richard Layard, Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Paul Krugman

    This sequel to Reform in Eastern Europe is a report on one of the most pressing issues for countries with economies in transition and their neighbors. Focusing on the problem of East-West migration, the authors clearly delineate and promote the notion of European free trade and capital flows as a means of raising productivity and increasing worker stability in the East and of reducing income gaps between countries.

    As economists who have been deeply and consistently involved in the recent upheavals in the East, the authors are in a position to take a well-informed stance on the economic and social dislocations that are occurring. They first outline the problem and recommend that Europe begin to admit primary migrants and that the US increase its quota. They then look at migration statistics from previous eras to predict equivalent levels in the near future and take into account the long-run and short-run effects of migration in the US and Europe. They conclude with a detailed discussion of "the best defense of all," economic progress, and lay out the necessary conditions for free trade, investment, and aid.

    • Hardcover $22.00
    • Paperback $20.00 £15.99
  • NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991

    NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991

    Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer

    This is the sixth in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics.

    Contents Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots, John Y. Campbell and Pierre Perron • Markups and the Business Cycle, Julio Rotemberg and Michael Woodford • Privatization in Eastern Europe: Incentives and the Economics of Transition, Jean Tirole • The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency, Kenneth A. Froot and Kenneth S. Rogoff • Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development, Stanley S. Fischer • Recessions as Reorganizations, Robert E. Hall

    • Hardcover $35.00
    • Paperback $32.00 £26.00
  • Reform in Eastern Europe

    Reform in Eastern Europe

    Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, Paul Krugman, Richard Layard, and Lawrence H. Summers

    How can the new governments of Eastern Europe succeed in moving from centrally planned to freemarket economies? This incisive report identifies and describes the major policy choices to be made and discusses what will work and what will not.Reform in Eastern Europe provides a comprehensive, easily read statement of reform policy that stands in the mainstream of modern Western economics. Based on their experience with stabilization policies in other countries, the authors show how Eastern Europe can reduce unemployment during the painful adjustment process, create effective and socially acceptable mechanisms to subject enterprises to market discipline, and replace barter trade under CMEA with market-based international trade.

    • Hardcover $22.00
    • Paperback $20.00 £15.99
  • NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990

    NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990

    Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer

    This is the fifth in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics.

    Contributors Ricardo Caballero, Guiseppe Bertola, Andrew Caplin, Robert Hall, Gur Ofer, Abram Bergson, Martin Weitzman, Francesco Giavazzi, Marco Pagano, Allan Drazen, Martin Feldstein, Steven Davis, John Haltiwanger, Katharine Abraham, Robert Townsend, Mark Bils, Andrew Oswald, Gary Hansen, Robert Barro, Xavier Sala i Martin, William Brainard, Robert Lucas

    • Hardcover $35.00
    • Paperback $32.00 £26.00
  • NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989

    NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989

    Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer

    This is the fourth in a series of annuals from the National Bureau of Economic Research that are designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics.

    Contents The Monetary History After Twenty-Five Years: New Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship, Christina Romer and David Romer • Restrictions on Financial Intermediaries and Implecations for Aggregate Fluctuations: Canada and the U.S., 1870-1908, Stephen Williamson • The Thatcher "Miracle", Charles Bean with Jim Symons • The Revised NBER Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators, James Stock and Mark Watson • Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: The Euler Equation Approach Ten Years Later, John Campbell and N. Gregory Mankiw • U.S. Earnings and Income Inequality: Recent Trends, Frank Levy • Business Cycle Models with Increasing Returns, Kevin Murphy, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny

    • Hardcover $32.50
    • Paperback $7.75 £5.99
  • Lectures on Macroeconomics

    Lectures on Macroeconomics

    Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer

    The main purpose of Lectures on Macroeconomics is to characterize and explain fluctuations in output, unemployment and movement in prices.

    Lectures on Macroeconomics provides the first comprehensive description and evaluation of macroeconomic theory in many years. While the authors' perspective is broad, they clearly state their assessment of what is important and what is not as they present the essence of macroeconomic theory today.The main purpose of Lectures on Macroeconomics is to characterize and explain fluctuations in output, unemployment and movement in prices. The most important fact of modern economic history is persistent long term growth, but as the book makes clear, this growth is far from steady. The authors analyze and explore these fluctuations.

    Topics include consumption and investment; the Overlapping Generations Model; money; multiple equilibria, bubbles, and stability; the role of nominal rigidities; competitive equilibrium business cycles, nominal rigidities and economic fluctuations, goods, labor and credit markets; and monetary and fiscal policy issues. Each of chapters 2 through 9 discusses models appropriate to the topic. Chapter 10 then draws on the previous chapters, asks which models are the workhorses of macroeconomics, and sets the models out in convenient form. A concluding chapter analyzes the goals of economic policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and dynamic inconsistency.

    Written as a text for graduate students with some background in macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics, Lectures on Macroeconomics also presents topics in a self contained way that makes it a suitable reference for professional economists.

    • Hardcover $100.00 £82.00
  • Restoring Europe's Prosperity

    Restoring Europe's Prosperity

    Macroeconomic Papers from the Centre for European Policy Studies

    Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Richard Layard

    Restoring Europe's Prosperity is the first annual produced by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), an independent research institution which focuses on the major medium- and long-term issues facing the European community and Western Europe both internally and internationally.The most important economic problems of the past five years have concerned unemployment, economic growth, fiscal deficits, and the value of the U.S. dollar. It is clear that past and present economic policies have not effectively addressed these problems. This CEPS annual selects the best work of the Centre's Macroeconomic Policy Group; a rotating group of distinguished economists who are studying macroeconomic conditions and trends, the implications of the economic policies being pursued, and possible alternative policies.

    Essays Macroeconomic Prospects and Policies for the European Community, by R. Dornbusch, G. Basevi, O. Blanchard, W. Buiter, and R. Layard • Europe: The Case for Unsustainable Growth, by R. Layard, G. Basevi, O. Blanchard, W. Buiter, and R. Dornbusch • Employment and Growth in Europe: A Two-Handed Approach, by O. Blanchard, R. Dornbusch, J. Dreze, H. Giersch, R. Layard, and M. Monti • Public Debt and Fiscal Responsibility, by O. Blanchard, R. Dornbusch, and W. Buiter • US Deficits, the Dollar, and Europe, by O. Blanchard and R. Dornbusch

    • Hardcover $28.00
    • Paperback $30.00 £25.00

Contributor

  • Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

    Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

    A Phillips Curve Retrospective

    Jeff Fuhrer, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivei

    Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment.

    In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy.

    Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

    • Hardcover $19.75 £15.99