Richard Layard

Richard Layard is Director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

  • What the Future Holds

    What the Future Holds

    Insights from Social Science

    Richard N. Cooper and Richard Layard

    Social scientists from various disciplines discuss and offer predictions about the future.

    Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. But systematic analysis leads to clearer understanding and wiser decisions. Thinking about the future also makes social scientists focus their research into the past and present more fruitfully, with more attention to key predictors of change.

    This book considers how we might think intelligently about the future. Taking different methodological approaches, well-known specialists forecast likely future developments and trends in human life. The questions they address include: How many humans will there be? Will there be enough energy? How will climate change affect our lives? What patterns of work will exist? How will government work at the local, national, and world level? Will inflation remain under control? Why have past forecasts been so bad? The book concludes with a discussion of the intellectual and historical context of futurology and a look at the accuracy of predictions that were made for the year 2000. Jed.

    • Hardcover $45.00 £38.00
    • Paperback $4.75 £3.99
  • Emerging from Communism

    Emerging from Communism

    Lessons from Russia, China, and Eastern Europe

    Peter Boone, Stanislaw Gomulka, and Richard Layard

    Issues addressed include inflation, privatization, enterprise restructuring, banking reform and labor market policy, and the role of decentralization in China's growth.

    The collapse of communism in Europe was one of the most important world events since the end of World War II. Although China has taken major steps in the direction of capitalism, in Eastern Europe, China, and Central Asia the transformation has been only partly accomplished; in Cuba and North Korea it has not even begun. In Eastern Europe and Russia, economic reforms were accompanied by huge falls in output, followed by some recovery in Eastern Europe, especially in Poland. By contrast, in China output has grown steadily at a rate never seen in Europe. If free markets and private ownership are meant to increase economic opportunity and welfare, why has their introduction been accompanied by such pain in Eastern Europe and Russia? The contributors to this book believe that future reform strategies in any country depend on understanding what has occurred in these emerging economies so far. Issues addressed include inflation, privatization, enterprise restructuring, banking reform and labor market policy, and the role of decentralization in China's growth.

    Contributors Peter Boone, Saul Estrin, Stanislaw Gomulka, Jacob Hørder, Richard Jackman, Richard Layard, Sweder Van Wijnbergen, Wing Thye Woo, Chengang Xu, Juzhong Zhuang

    • Hardcover $10.75 £8.99
  • Post-Communist Reform

    Post-Communist Reform

    Pain and Progress

    Olivier Blanchard, Maxim Boycko, Marek Dabrowski, Rudiger Dornbusch, Richard Layard, and Andrei Shleifer

    In this new report, they take stock, returning to the original themes and assessing progress and prospects, particularly in Russia.

    In their earlier report, Reform in Eastern Europe, the WIDER group assessed the main building blocks of a successful transition in Eastern Europe: stabilization, price liberalization, privatization, and restructuring. For the last three years this group of leading economists has been heavily involved in the reform process. In this new report, they take stock, returning to the original themes and assessing progress and prospects, particularly in Russia.Stabilization in the major Central European countries was done very much by the book. Russia, in contrast, is following a path of restructuring without stabilization. The authors discuss how far this alternative strategy is likely to get. Turning to privatization, they note that initial plans started from the assumption that the state owned the assets. As slow progress of those plans has painfully shown, this was the wrong assumption. They point out that assets have in fact many de facto claimants, from managers to workers to local authorities to ministries, and discuss how the current Russian privatization program starts and builds up from this more realistic assessment.

    In the face of a collapse of trade in Eastern Europe, triggered by reform in Central Europe and a similar collapse between republics following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the authors show how simple measures such as a payments union can be used to increase trade and output. Post-Communist Reform concludes with a look at restructuring in Poland. The authors focus on the behavior of the state, the growth of the private sector, the role of financial systems, and the coherence of overall government policy, ending on a note of cautious optimism.

    • Hardcover $32.00 £26.00
    • Paperback $20.00 £15.99
  • Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today

    Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today

    Rudiger Dornbusch, Wilhelm Nolling, and Richard Layard

    The case studies in this book examine significant parallels between the situation in Eastern Europe today and the issues facing Europe and Japan after World War II, offering insights on what kinds of policy actions will be most effective in this difficult period of reconstruction.

    The breakup of the Soviet Union and the consequent extraordinary problems faced by Eastern European nations raise pressing economic questions. The case studies in this book examine significant parallels between the situation in Eastern Europe today and the issues facing Europe and Japan after World War II, offering insights on what kinds of policy actions will be most effective in this difficult period of reconstruction. The essays address such topics as the relative roles of government and the market; economic openness; industrial conversion from war to peacetime production; the roles of institutions, enterprises, the business community, and their work staffs; and external control of policy measures, of resources made available by the outside world, and of the general external environment. In their introductory chapter, the editors provide an overview that addresses the question of whether reconstruction can ever be managed smoothly.

    Contents Openness, Wage Restraint, and Macroeconomic Stability: West Germany's Road to Prosperity 1948-1959, H. Giersch, K. H. Paqué, M. Schmieding • The Lucky Miracle: Germany 1945-1951, H. Wolf • Inflation and Stabilization in Italy 1946-1951, M. De Cecco and F. Giavazzi • Economic Reconstruction in France 1945-1958, G. Saint-Paul • Reconstruction and the U.K. Postwar Welfare State: False Start and New Beginning, P. Minford • A Perspective on Postwar Reconstruction in Finland, J. Paunio • The Reconstruction and Stabilization of the Postwar Japanese Economy, K. Hamada and M. Kasuya • The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program, J. B. De Long and B. Eichengreen • Lessons for Eastern Europe Today, 0. Blanchard, R. Portes, W. Nolling

    • Hardcover $48.00 £40.00
    • Paperback $25.00 £20.00
  • East-West Migration

    East-West Migration

    The Alternatives

    Richard Layard, Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Paul Krugman

    This sequel to Reform in Eastern Europe is a report on one of the most pressing issues for countries with economies in transition and their neighbors. Focusing on the problem of East-West migration, the authors clearly delineate and promote the notion of European free trade and capital flows as a means of raising productivity and increasing worker stability in the East and of reducing income gaps between countries.

    As economists who have been deeply and consistently involved in the recent upheavals in the East, the authors are in a position to take a well-informed stance on the economic and social dislocations that are occurring. They first outline the problem and recommend that Europe begin to admit primary migrants and that the US increase its quota. They then look at migration statistics from previous eras to predict equivalent levels in the near future and take into account the long-run and short-run effects of migration in the US and Europe. They conclude with a detailed discussion of "the best defense of all," economic progress, and lay out the necessary conditions for free trade, investment, and aid.

    • Hardcover $22.00
    • Paperback $20.00 £15.99
  • Reform in Eastern Europe

    Reform in Eastern Europe

    Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, Paul Krugman, Richard Layard, and Lawrence H. Summers

    How can the new governments of Eastern Europe succeed in moving from centrally planned to freemarket economies? This incisive report identifies and describes the major policy choices to be made and discusses what will work and what will not.Reform in Eastern Europe provides a comprehensive, easily read statement of reform policy that stands in the mainstream of modern Western economics. Based on their experience with stabilization policies in other countries, the authors show how Eastern Europe can reduce unemployment during the painful adjustment process, create effective and socially acceptable mechanisms to subject enterprises to market discipline, and replace barter trade under CMEA with market-based international trade.

    • Hardcover $22.00
    • Paperback $20.00 £15.99
  • The Fight Against Unemployment

    Macroeconomic Analysis from the Centre for European Policy Studies

    Richard Layard and Lars Calmfors

    This second CEPS annual addresses the crucial problem of persistent high unemployment in Europe, despite recent years of economic recovery. Recurring themes in the discussion of possible solutions are the relative importance of aggregate demand, labor-market flexibility, capital formation, and the organization of work-time in order to achieve work-sharing. The report of the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group included in this volume identifies a mix of macroeconomic strategies that could gradually boost output while containing inflation, bringing it back to the five percent level of the late 1970s. Contributors are Franco Modigliani (MIT), Marie Monti (Bocconi University), Jacques Dréze, Herbert Giersch (Kiel), and Richard Layard.Wolfgang Franz (University of Stuttgart) provides strong evidence that contractionary policies aimed at combating inflation will mean higher unemployment in the long run. David Metcalf (London School of Economics) surveys the recent literature on labor-market rigidities in the European economies, focusing on problems of aggregate and relative wage flexibility and analyzing the relations to bargaining structure, the degree of cooperativism and labor-market legislation. The issue of work-sharing as a means of promoting employment is discussed by Jacques Dréze (Université Catholique de Louvain), who sees this as a method of achieving a more efficient allocation of regular jobs between "insiders" in the labor market and new entrants. He points out various ways - such as trading jobs between workers of different ages, sharing jobs, and trading hours for jobs - that work might realistically be shared.

    The Centre for European Policy Studies, based in Brussels, is an independent research institution which focuses on the major medium- and long-term issues facing the European community and Western Europe internally and internationally.

    • Hardcover $35.00
  • Restoring Europe's Prosperity

    Restoring Europe's Prosperity

    Macroeconomic Papers from the Centre for European Policy Studies

    Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Richard Layard

    Restoring Europe's Prosperity is the first annual produced by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), an independent research institution which focuses on the major medium- and long-term issues facing the European community and Western Europe both internally and internationally.The most important economic problems of the past five years have concerned unemployment, economic growth, fiscal deficits, and the value of the U.S. dollar. It is clear that past and present economic policies have not effectively addressed these problems. This CEPS annual selects the best work of the Centre's Macroeconomic Policy Group; a rotating group of distinguished economists who are studying macroeconomic conditions and trends, the implications of the economic policies being pursued, and possible alternative policies.

    Essays Macroeconomic Prospects and Policies for the European Community, by R. Dornbusch, G. Basevi, O. Blanchard, W. Buiter, and R. Layard • Europe: The Case for Unsustainable Growth, by R. Layard, G. Basevi, O. Blanchard, W. Buiter, and R. Dornbusch • Employment and Growth in Europe: A Two-Handed Approach, by O. Blanchard, R. Dornbusch, J. Dreze, H. Giersch, R. Layard, and M. Monti • Public Debt and Fiscal Responsibility, by O. Blanchard, R. Dornbusch, and W. Buiter • US Deficits, the Dollar, and Europe, by O. Blanchard and R. Dornbusch

    • Hardcover $28.00
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