Robert J. Shiller

Robert J. Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is the author of Finance and the Good Society and other books.

  • Reforming U.S. Financial Markets

    Reforming U.S. Financial Markets

    Reflections Before and Beyond Dodd-Frank

    Randall S. Kroszner, Robert J. Shiller, and Benjamin M. Friedman

    Two top economists outline distinctive approaches to post-crisis financial reform.

    Over the last few years, the financial sector has experienced its worst crisis since the 1930s. The collapse of major firms, the decline in asset values, the interruption of credit flows, the loss of confidence in firms and credit market instruments, the intervention by governments and central banks: all were extraordinary in scale and scope. In this book, leading economists Randall Kroszner and Robert Shiller discuss what the United States should do to prevent another such financial meltdown. Their discussion goes beyond the nuts and bolts of legislative and regulatory fixes to consider fundamental changes in our financial arrangements.

    Kroszner and Shiller offer two distinctive approaches to financial reform, with Kroszner providing a systematic analysis of regulatory gaps and Shiller addressing the broader concerns of democratizing and humanizing finance. After brief discussions by four commentators (Benjamin M. Friedman, George G. Kaufman, Robert C. Pozen, and Hal S. Scott), Kroszner and Shiller each offer a response to the other's proposals, creating a fruitful dialogue between two major figures in the field.

    • Hardcover $9.75 £7.99
    • Paperback $15.95 £12.99
  • Market Volatility

    Market Volatility

    Robert J. Shiller

    Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.

    • Hardcover $65.00 £48.95
    • Paperback $55.00 £43.00


  • In 100 Years

    In 100 Years

    Leading Economists Predict the Future

    Ignacio Palacios-Huerta

    In this book, ten prominent economists—including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates—offer their ideas about what the future might hold in 100 years.

    This pithy and engaging volume shows that economists may be better equipped to predict the future than science fiction writers. Economists' ideas, based on both theory and practice, reflect their knowledge of the laws of human interactions as well as years of experimentation and reflection. Although perhaps not as screenplay-ready as a work of fiction, these economists' predictions are ready for their close-ups. In this book, ten prominent economists—including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates—offer their ideas about the world of the twenty-second century.

    In scenarios that range from the optimistic to the guardedly gloomy, these thinkers consider such topics as the transformation of work and wages, the continuing increase in inequality, the economic rise of China and India, the endlessly repeating cycle of crisis and (projected) recovery, the benefits of technology, the economic consequences of political extremism, and the long-range effects of climate change. For example, 2013 Nobelist Robert Shiller provides an innovative view of future risk management methods using information technology; and Martin Weitzman raises the intriguing but alarming possibility of using geoengineering techniques to mitigate the inevitable effects of climate change.

    Contributors Daron Acemoglu, Angus Deaton, Avinash K. Dixit, Edward L. Glaeser, Andreu Mas-Colell, John E. Roemer, Alvin E. Roth, Robert J. Shiller, Robert M. Solow, Martin L. Weitzman

    • Hardcover $26.95 £19.95
    • Paperback $18.95 £14.99
  • Financial Innovation

    Financial Innovation

    Too Much or Too Little?

    Michael Haliassos

    Prominent economists consider the role of financial innovation in economic crises.

    In assigning blame for the recent economic crisis, many have pointed to the proliferation of new, complex financial products—mortgage securitization in particular—as being at the heart of the meltdown. The prominent economists from academia, policy institutions, and financial practice who contribute to this book, however, take a more nuanced view of financial innovation. They argue that it was not too much innovation but too little innovation—and the lack of balance between debt-related products and asset-related products—that lies behind the crisis. Prevention of future financial crises, then, will be aided by a regulatory and legal framework that fosters the informed use of financial innovation and its positive effects on the economy rather than quashing innovation entirely.

    The book, which includes two contributions from 2013 Nobe Laureate Robert Shiller as well as a discussion of Shiller's “MacroMarkets” tool, considers the key ingredients of financial innovation from both academia and industry; and how future innovation-lined crises might be avoided.

    Contributors Josef Ackermann, Nicholas C. Barberis, John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Robin Greenwood, Michael Haliassos, Otmar Issing, Alexander Popov, Robert J. Shiller, Andrei Shleifer, Frank R. Smets, Susan J. Smith, Maria Vassalou, Luis M. Viceira

    • Hardcover $19.75 £14.99
    • Paperback $9.75 £7.99
  • Perspectives on the Performance of the Continental Economies

    Perspectives on the Performance of the Continental Economies

    Edmund S. Phelps and Hans-Werner Sinn

    Leading economists consider the apparent underperformance of the European economy, testing various explanations against data.

    Economists disagree on what ails the economies of continental western Europe, which are widely perceived to be underperforming in terms of productivity and other metrics. Is it some deficiency in their economic system—in economic institutions or cultural attitudes? Is it some effect of their welfare systems of social insurance and assistance? Or are these systems healthy enough but weighed down by adverse market conditions?

    In this volume, leading economists test the various explanations for Europe's economic underperformance against real-world data. The chapters, written from widely varying perspectives, demonstrate the shortcomings and strengths of some methods of economics as much as they do the shortcomings and strengths of some economies of western continental Europe. Some contributors address only income per head or per worker; others look at efficiency and distortions of national choices such as that between labor and leisure; still others look at job satisfaction, fulfillment, and rates of indigenous innovation. Many offer policy recommendations, which range from developing institutions that promote entrepreneurship to using early education to increase human capital.

    • Hardcover $9.75 £7.99