The diagnosis of a national political system is put to test in Venezuela, a country that has seen a sudden and violent acceleration of structural changes over the past 40 years. This study builds on the hypothesis that such a situation creates cultural contradictions and conflicts that affect the formulation and implementation of development policies. It is based on some 5500 interviews and eight distinct types of sampling schemes with three dozen survey groups to show why democracy is permanently in crisis in an underdeveloped country.
Chapter 1 describes the diagnostic approach used to build an analytical model of Venezuelan society. Chapter 2 and 3 review the major historical changes that have shaped present conditions, such as colonization and slavery, domination of foreign economic interests, dictatorships, and student demonstrations. Chapters 4 through 9 pursue a detailed evaluation of the social groups that have influences Venezuela's recent history, their values and experience of change. Silva finds that while all groups have undergone a substantial positive change, social inequality has increased. An exploration of group Weltanschauung reveals a correlation between their socioeconomic status and political capacity. Groups with high status were found to be congenial toward development, had a firm sense of psychological autonomy, and were thus able to perceive problems and their possible solutions differently from the mass of the population. Two final syntheses using diverse methods show that Venezuelan society harbors a conservative element that frustrates attempts to distribute the benefits of change equally among social groups. The final chapter places the findings in a larger context and analyzes Latin America's dependency relationship with the United States.
Following the Orwellian example and his analytical model, the author predicts that a revolutionary crisis may exist by 1984. He points to a series of events that are likely to occur (including possible exhaustion of oil reserves), and he concludes that whether or not a crisis will develop or be resolved depends on the political ability of the social groups to manage current conflicts within a system in which the possibility of tolerating or making the necessary structural changes is a weak point in the functioning and organization of Venezuelan society. The author also indicates that only a reduction in foreign influence and new nationalistic attitudes and new organizations to articulate social needs can bring about a more adaptive, humane, and self-supporting political system.
This is the final report in a long-term research project aimed at formulating rational policies for the development of Venezuela. The project is a joint endeavor by members of the Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo (CENDES) and the Center for Internationall Studies at M.I.T.
