Roger Guesnerie

Roger Guesnerie is Professor at the Collège de France and President of the Paris School of Economics. He is the author of Assessing Rational Expectations and Assessing Rational Expectations 2 (MIT Press, 2001, 2005).

  • The Design of Climate Policy

    The Design of Climate Policy

    Roger Guesnerie and Henry Tulkens

    Leading economists offer theoretical, quantitative, and policy perspectives on climate policy.

    Debates over post-Kyoto Protocol climate change policy often take note of two issues: the feasibility and desirability of international cooperation on climate change policies, given the failure of the United States to ratify Kyoto, and the very limited involvement of developing countries; and the optimal timing of climate policies. These essays by leading international economists in this book offer insights on both these concerns.

    The book first considers the appropriate institutions for effective international cooperation on climate change, proposing an alternative to the Kyoto arrangement and a theoretical framework for such a scheme. The discussions then turn to the stability of international environmental agreements, emphasizing the logic of coalition forming (including the applicability of game-theoretical analysis). Finally, contributors address both practical and quantitative aspects of policy design, offering theoretical analyses of such specific policy issues as intertemporal aspects of carbon trade and the optimal implementation of a sequestration policy and then using formal mathematical models to examine policies related to the rate of climate change, international trade and carbon leakage, and the shortcomings of the standard Global Warming Potential index.

    Contributors Philippe Ambrosi, David F. Bradford, Barbara Buchner, Carlo Carraro, Parkash Chander, Stéphane De Cara, Damien Demailly, A. Denny Ellerman, Johan Eyckmans, Michael Finus, Elodie Galko, Roger Guesnerie, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Pierre-Alain Jayet, Gilles Lafforgue, Bernard Magné, Sandrine Mathy, Michel Moreaux, Sushama Murty, William A. Pizer, Philippe Quirion, Katrin Rehdanz, P. R. Shukla, Jaemin Song, Ian Sue Wing, Sylvie Thoron, Richard S. J. Tol, Henry Tulkens

    • Hardcover $8.75 £7.95
    • Paperback $31.00 £24.00
  • Assessing Rational Expectations 2

    Assessing Rational Expectations 2

    "Eductive" Stability in Economics

    Roger Guesnerie

    A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test.

    The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure.

    Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.

    • Hardcover $11.75 £9.99
  • Assessing Rational Expectations

    Assessing Rational Expectations

    Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations

    Roger Guesnerie

    Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH).

    In this book Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). He focuses on the multiplicity question that arises in (infinite horizon) Rational Expectation models and considers the implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. The REH, which dominates the economic modeling of expectations in most fields of formalized economic theory, is often associated with an optimistic view of the working of the markets—a view that Guesnerie scrutinizes closely. The book is divided into four parts. The first part uses the framework of simple models to characterize the stochastic processes that trigger self-fulfilling prophecies and examines the connections between periodic equilibria (cycles) and stochastic equilibria (sunspots). (A sunspot is a random shock uncorrelated with underlying economic fundamentals.) The second part views sunspot equilibria as overreactions triggered by small variations of intrinsic variables—rather than as fluctuations with no trigger—and looks at the consequences for a monetary theory à la Lucas. The third part develops the basic theory to encompass more complex, multidimensional systems. It focuses in particular on the special class of equilibria generating small fluctuations around a steady state. Broadening the scope, the fourth part looks at the stability of cycles, sunspots in systems with memory, and current research on rational expectations.

    • Hardcover $45.00
  • Edmond Malinvaud, Volume 1

    Essays in His Honor

    Paul Champsaur, Michel Deleau, Jean_Michel Grandmont, Roger Guesnerie, Claude Henry, Jean-Jacques Laffont, Guy Laroque, Jacques Mairesse, Alain Monfort, and Yves Younes

    Available for the first time in translation the thirty-four essays collected in these three volumes provide English-speaking readers with an easily accessible and substantial library of current French economic thought, conveying the vitality of economic theory in France today.

    Edmond Malinvaud is among the world's most highly respected economists. Available for the first time in translation the thirty-four essays collected in these three volumes provide English-speaking readers with an easily accessible and substantial library of current French economic thought, conveying the vitality of economic theory in France today. The essays reflect Malinvaud's own broad contributions to the field and range from theoretical analysis to applied project evaluation, from the formalization of basic concepts to analyses directed toward policy planning and assessment, and from examples of pure statistical methodology to empirical studies.Included are a number of valuable studies on unemployment, one of the basic themes of Malinvaud's work, that report significant advances in the theory of disequilibrium and related approaches. There are essays that provide excellent examples of recent advances in market analysis, that cover important advances in difficult areas of econometrics such as the application of test theory to complex nonlinear cases and the fundamentals of estimation under more realistic hypotheses, and essays that make significant contributions to statistical methods in econometrics, presenting "clean" statistical procedures which contain the elements of solutions to such practical problems as data adjustment.

    • Hardcover $90.00